Political Opinion: Winter is coming in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin thought victory would come in a matter of weeks. Ukrainian bravery proved him wrong, and the war on European soil has now lasted longer than the First World War.

From our history books, we know that Russia has used winter as a weapon of war. But Moscow makes no secret of its intentions today either, with a Russian defence chief posting pictures of attack drones on social media and threatening to make Ukrainians “freeze” this winter.

And yet perhaps the biggest threat is not the weather. It’s that we grow used to a war on our continent.

I don’t often write about foreign policy in this column. I’m more of a buses, NHS and trees kind of politician.

But one thing that has struck me in Parliament is quite how much time we spend talking about abroad. There is, after all, an awful lot of the rest of the world.

And when it comes to Russian aggression, events beyond our shores matter. They matter in a life-and-death sense to Ukrainians, but they shape our lives too.

This year, exports of wheat through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have dropped sharply, at times nearly grinding to a halt because of Russian attacks. That disruption to grain supplies can reach all the way to our supermarket shelves.

But there is also a principle at stake that cannot be measured at the checkout.

It is simply wrong that one country should be allowed to seize another’s territory by force. Accepting that would make us all less secure.

I often think back to a conversation I had with some Latvians nearly a decade ago. They kept talking about defence and the threat from Russia. At the time, I remember thinking they were rather going on about it. Couldn’t they give it a rest?

Looking back, of course, they were right and I was wrong. Living so close to Russia had given them a much sharper understanding of the threat.

Today, we see not only Russia’s continuing aggression against Ukraine, but Putin’s growing shadow war of sabotage and interference across Europe, designed in part to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

So I was pleased to see the Prime Minister welcome President Zelenskyy to Downing Street this week, particularly following another appalling tirade from Donald Trump and his extraordinary deal to buy Russian diesel.

As a country, we have a responsibility to sustain our support for Ukraine, help it defend itself and keep pressing for a just and lasting peace.

Putin believed he could win in weeks. Now he is banking on outlasting the patience of Ukraine’s allies.

We must prove him wrong again.

Because the passing of time must not dull our outrage, and familiarity with this war must never become indifference.

Ukrainians must not face another winter alone.